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mysistereileen.com/?p=5762Sep 2, 2012 – Aug 22, 2012 – mysistereileen.com/?p=5501. ..... Detailed polling analysis and projections for the statewide presidential vote, along with recent ...
mysistereileen.com/Feb 6, 2012 – Do you want results for @mysistereileen.com foreign … ...... An NPR report on the meeting noted: “The latest polls show Obama's numbers ..... (and Mrs. Clinton's) has been more focused on NOT predicting Arab Spring, NOT ...
mysistereileen.com/?p=5799Sep 3, 2012 – Aug 4, 2012 – My Sister Eileen Sid Harth End Of The World Oops …. इदं न ..... Polling Digest: American Public Supports Multilateral Measures to End Syrian ...... North gained some notoriety for his prediction of a possible Y2K ...
mysistereileen.com/?p=6072Feb 6, 2012 – Do you want results for @mysistereileen.com foreign … ...... An NPR report on the meeting noted: “The latest polls show Obama's numbers ..... (and Mrs. Clinton's) has been more focused on NOT predicting Arab Spring, NOT ...
mysistereileen.org/2012/.../barack-obama-busts-mitt-romney-i...3 days ago – Ads related to @mysistereileen.org 2012 election polls ..... Gillespie argued that pollsters' overstated predictions of Democratic voter turnout ...
www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/.../2012_elections_elect...Latest Election 2012 Polls · RCP Printable One Sheet. Electoral College. RCP Electoral College Map · Changes in Electoral Count · Map With No Toss Up States ...
www.gallup.com/poll/.../americans-predict-obama-win-2012-e...Aug 27, 2012 – Americans are much more likely to believe Barack Obama (58%) rather than Mitt Romney (36%) will win the election. Romney supporters are ...
fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/FiveThirtyEight is devoted to rigorous analysis of politics, polling, public affairs, sports, science and culture, largely ... September 30, 2012, 10:34 am ... themselves as Democrats and Republicans, also close to what the polls had predicted.
Aug 15, 2012 – August 15, 2012, 12:56 pm. In Senate Races, Politics Are Local Again. By NATE SILVER. We will soon be unveiling our forecast model for United States ... But Mr. Akin has led her in several consecutive polls, sometimes ...
graphics.latimes.com/2012-election-electoral-map/Predict a winner: Battleground states. The 2012 presidential election is likely to be decided by voters in a small number of swing states. The Times has identified ...
bleacherreport.com/.../1299854-associated-press-preseason-col...Aug 16, 2012 – The laughable USA Today Coaches Poll was released last week, ... here are the predictions for how the 2012 preseason AP Poll will look.
www.reuters.com/.../2012/.../us-usa-election-forecasting-...Aug 1, 2012 – WASHINGTON (Reuters) - For anyone wondering how much of the vote President Barack Obama might lose in the November 6 election ...
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Sept. 29: As Iowa Goes, So Go Romney’s Chances?By NATE SILVER
¶Saturday, not Sunday, is the news media’s traditional day of rest — and so it is the slowest day of the week for polling.
¶But the national tracking polls were published on Saturday, and continued to show President Obama in a fairly strong position. He held at a six-point lead in the Gallup national tracking poll, although his approval rating dipped. He also maintained a rough seven-point advantage in the RAND Corporation’s online tracking poll. Mr. Obama also pulled ahead to take a two-point lead in the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll, which had differed from other polling firms by previously showing a tie. (Another national tracking poll, from Ipsos, is not regularly published on the weekends.)
¶We’re getting to the point in the campaign where a day on which the polls are in line with expectations is a winning one for Mr. Obama, since Mr. Romney trails in the race and now has just five full weeks to make the deficit up. Mr. Obama’s forecast rose slightly, to an 83.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, from 82.7 percent on Friday.
¶The Des Moines Register also published its highly regarded Iowa Poll on Saturday, which showed Mr. Obama with a four-point lead, 49 to 45. This result is quite consistent with other polls of Iowa published since the conventions, which also have shown Mr. Obama ahead by four points on average.
¶The only prior Des Moines Register poll this year, which was conducted in February, showed Mitt Romney up by two points instead. So this represents a favorable trend for Mr. Obama.
¶On the other hand, the same polling firm, Selzer & Co., conducted a national poll for Bloomberg recently, which gave Mr. Obama a six-point advantage. So they have Mr. Obama polling slightly worse in Iowa than he is nationally.
¶The FiveThirtyEight forecast concurs: we have Mr. Obama projected to win Iowa by 3.6 percentage points on Nov. 6, smaller than his 4.1-point advantage in the national race.
¶These are marginal differences, obviously, but they matter some in terms of the electoral math since any hope that Mr. Romney has of winning the Electoral College without Ohio probably requires him to win Iowa. In the simulations that we ran on Saturday, Mr. Romney won the election only 2 percent of the time that he lost Iowa.
¶This isn’t a good poll for Mr. Romney, but it does suggest that Iowa hasn’t gotten out of hand, and that it could trend back toward him if the national race does.
¶Iowa ranks seventh on our list of tipping-point states, but it packs a lot of bang for the buck because its television markets are fairly small and cheap to advertise in. We estimate that a dollar spent there will do twice as much to sway the Electoral College outcome as one spent in Florida.
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FiveThirtyEight’s mission is to help New York Times readers cut through the clutter of this data-rich world. The blog is devoted to rigorous analysis of politics, polling, public affairs, sports, science and culture, largely through statistical means. In addition, FiveThirtyEight provides forecasts of upcoming presidential, Congressional, and gubernatorial elections through the use of its proprietary prediction models. Read more »
Nate Silver is the author of The Signal and the Noise, which is due to be published on Sept. 27
The national tracking polls were published on Saturday, and continued to show President Obama in a fairly strong position.
Since President Obama gained ground in the polls after the Democrats' convention, accusations of biased polling have proliferated.
We often talk about the important role that the economy plays in the election. But Americans perceptions of the economy are also colored by their political views.
By the time the "47 percent" video came to public attention, President Obama's convention momentum appeared to have stalled. But he has gained ground in the polls since then.
An army of government workers and government contractors live in suburban Maryland and favor Democrats by significant margins.
Paul D. Ryan acknowledges missteps by the Republican ticket, but also suggests media bias is having an impact on the race.
Representative Paul D. Ryan and Gov. Chris Christie are among the guests on the Sunday talk shows ahead of the first presidential debate.
Vice President Joseph R. Biden stopped at Mel's Diner in Fort Myers, Fla., as he finished up a two-day tour of the swing state.
- PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF 2012 110
- MITT ROMNEY 96
- 2010 MIDTERM ELECTIONS 78
- REPUBLICANS 77
- 2012 53
- PRIMARIES 50
- BARACK OBAMA 41
- POLLS 37
- PRESIDENT OBAMA 27
- RICK SANTORUM 24
- SENATE FORECAST 22
- 2012 ELECTIONS 21
- GOVERNORS FORECAST 20
- DEMOCRATS 20
- SENATE 18
Battle for White House
|Leans Obama (86)|
|New Mexico (5)|
|Toss Up (82)|
|New Hampshire (4)|
|North Carolina (15)|
|Leans||Toss up||Leans||Toss up|
|Date||State||Previous Status||New Status||RCP Electoral Count||RCP National Avg.|
|9/26||Ohio||Toss Up||»»»||Leans Obama||Obama 265 - Romney 191||Obama +4.0|
|9/21||Georgia||Leans Romney||»»»||Likely Romney||Obama 247 - Romney 191||Obama +3.5|
|9/20||Connecticut||Leans Obama||»»»||Likely Obama||Obama 247 - Romney 191||Obama +3.1|
|9/19||Wisconsin||Toss Up||»»»||Leans Obama||Obama 247 - Romney 191||Obama +2.9|
|9/12||Michigan||Toss Up||»»»||Leans Obama||Obama 237 - Romney 191||Obama +3.5|
RCP Electoral Spread
|State||Obama||Romney||RCP Average||RCP Status||2008||2004||2000|
|Florida (29)||49.3||46.1||Obama +3.2||Toss Up||Obama +2.8||Bush +5.0||Bush +0.1|
|New Hampshire (4)||48.7||45.7||Obama +3.0||Toss Up||Obama +9.6||Kerry +1.3||Bush +1.3|
|Virginia (13)||48.5||44.8||Obama +3.7||Toss Up||Obama +6.3||Bush +8.2||Bush +8.1|
|North Carolina (15)||47.8||46.7||Obama +1.1||Toss Up||Obama +0.3||Bush +12.4||Bush +12.8|
|Iowa (6)||48.5||44.8||Obama +3.7||Toss Up||Obama +9.5||Bush +0.7||Gore +0.3|
|Nevada (6)||49.0||45.2||Obama +3.8||Toss Up||Obama +12.5||Bush +2.6||Bush +3.5|
|Colorado (9)||48.7||45.8||Obama +2.9||Toss Up||Obama +9.0||Bush +4.7||Bush +8.4|
|Ohio (18)||49.5||43.6||Obama +5.9||Leans Dem||Obama +4.6||Bush +2.1||Bush +3.5|
|Wisconsin (10)||51.5||43.7||Obama +7.8||Leans Dem||Obama +13.9||Kerry +0.4||Gore +0.2|
|Missouri (10)||43.0||50.3||Romney +7.3||Leans GOP||McCain +0.1||Bush +7.2||Bush +3.3|
|Michigan (16)||51.2||42.4||Obama +8.8||Leans Dem||Obama +16.4||Kerry +3.4||Gore +5.2|
|Minnesota (10)||49.7||41.3||Obama +8.4||Leans Dem||Obama +10.3||Kerry +3.5||Gore +2.4|
|Oregon (7)||50.0||41.5||Obama +8.5||Leans Dem||Obama +16.4||Kerry +4.2||Gore +0.5|
|Arizona (11)||43.7||51.0||Romney +7.3||Leans GOP||McCain +8.5||Bush +10.5||Bush +6.3|
|Pennsylvania (20)||49.9||41.9||Obama +8.0||Leans Dem||Obama +10.3||Kerry +2.5||Gore +4.2|
|New Mexico (5)||50.0||40.0||Obama +10.0||Leans Dem||Obama +15.1||Bush +0.7||Gore +0.1|
|Connecticut (7)||53.0||39.3||Obama +13.7||Likely Dem||Obama +22.4||Kerry +10.3||Gore +17.5|
|Georgia (16)||39.0||52.3||Romney +13.3||Likely GOP||McCain +5.2||Bush +16.6||Bush +11.7|
|New Jersey (14)||51.4||38.6||Obama +12.8||Likely Dem||Obama +15.6||Kerry +6.7||Gore +15.8|
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Recent Commentary & News Stories
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